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On Perceptions of Financial Volatility in Price Sequences

机译:论价格序列中金融波动的认知

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摘要

Stock prices in financial markets rise and fall, sometimes dramatically, thus asset returns exhibit volatility. In finance theory, volatility is synonymous with risk and as such represents the dispersion of asset returns about their central tendency (i.e. mean), measured by the standard deviation of returns. When individuals make investment decisions, influenced by perceptions of risk and volatility, they commonly do so by examining graphs of historic price sequences rather than returns. It is unclear, therefore, whether standard deviation of return is foremost in their mind when making such decisions. We conduct two experiments to examine the factors that may influence perceptions of financial volatility, including standard deviation along with a number of price-based factors. Also of interest is the influence of price sequence regularity on perceived volatility. While standard deviation may have a role to play in perception of volatility, we find evidence that other price-based factors play a far greater role. Furthermore, we report evidence to support the view that the extent to which prices appear irregular is a separate aspect of volatility, distinct from the extent to which prices deviate from central tendency. Also, while partially correlated, individuals do not perceive risk and volatility as synonymous, though they are more closely related in the presence of price sequence irregularity.
机译:金融市场中的股票价格有时会急剧上升和下降,因此资产收益率呈现波动性。在金融理论中,波动率是风险的代名词,因此代表资产收益率围绕其集中趋势(即均值)的分散度,以收益率的标准偏差衡量。当个人在受风险和波动性感知影响的情况下做出投资决策时,通常通过检查历史价格序列图而不是回报来进行决策。因此,尚不清楚在做出此类决定时,他们是否会首先考虑回报率的标准差。我们进行了两个实验,以检验可能影响财务波动感知的因素,包括标准差以及许多基于价格的因素。同样令人感兴趣的是价格序列规律性对感知波动性的影响。尽管标准差可能会在波动率感知中发挥作用,但我们发现有证据表明其他基于价格的因素起着更大的作用。此外,我们报告的证据支持这样的观点,即价格看起来不规则的程度是波动的一个独立方面,不同于价格偏离中心趋势的程度。同样,尽管部分相关,但个人不会将风险和波动视为同义词,尽管在价格序列不规则的情况下,他们之间的联系更为密切。

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  • 作者

    Duxbury, D; Summers, BA;

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  • 年度 2017
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  • 正文语种 en
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